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Model development

 

RIKS develops spatially dynamic models in which natural, social and economic components are integrated as part of a larger entity. Special attention and effort goes into research, development, and application of constrained cellular automata for modelling spatial dynamics, land-use dynamics, environmental impact forecasting (LOV, Murbandy, Xplorah, SimLucia) and morphological dynamics (SimDelta 2003).

Cellular Models of Micro Scale Dynamics
Spatial Modelling
Many problems have a geographical dimension; and frequently, location is a critical aspect of the problem. For such purposes as urban planning or management of ecological reserves, a spatial perspective is essential. Yet the spatial dimension is absent from most current decision tools. To deal with this problem, we have developed an innovative approach based on recent results in the mathematics of Cellular Automata and the theory of complex systems.

Land Use Dynamics
The cellular approach permits a highly detailed modelling of spatial dynamics. It considers first of all the specific characteristics of the land, such as soils, topography, and land use regulations. But more importantly, it also takes into account the local attraction and repulsion effects of different land use activities on each other. On this basis it produces a forecast of changing land use patterns. In the most powerful and general versions, a cellular model is linked to an integrated dynamic model in order to predict the land use changes required to satisfy the evolution of the economic, demographic, and natural systems.

Environmental Impact Forecasting
With the cellular technique, land use changes can be related directly to environmental changes. For example, expansion of agriculture into a naturally forested region means not only a direct environmental impact in terms of loss of natural vegetation. Due to increased soil erosion, it may also mean degradation of water quality in rivers draining the newly farmed areas, with consequent impacts on local fisheries. This entire sequence of events can be modelled naturally with the cellular facility.

Geographical Information Systems
Currently, the most detailed geographical data is stored and manipulated in Geographical Information Systems (GIS). But, GIS provide static descriptions of reality. They do not provide the tools to comprehend why things are where they are and how this might change with time. They leave it up to the decision maker to answer these fundamental questions. Our cellular modelling facility runs on top of GIS data-layers. It generates the changing picture of the landscape and brings about the new spatial interactions that it entails.