Aim of the LUMOCAP project has been to deliver an operational tool to evaluate land use changes and their impact on the rural landscape of the European Union under the influence of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The Policy Support System (PSS) developed in the project allows policy makers and policy analysts to explore the impact of different policy options under a set of natural and socio-economic conditions. To reveal these impacts the system is equipped with a rich set of social, economic and environmental indicators.
The LUMOCAP PSS incorporates an integrated set of models representing socio-economic and bio-physical processes. These models operate at four different spatial scales: EU-27, Member States, NUTS-2 regions and 4 ha to 1 km2 grid cells. At the European scale, an agricultural-economic model simulates the influence of CAP policy measures on the production and area demand of different crop types. External influences incorporated at this level include market prices, employment and population. Models at intermediate levels simulate migration flows between countries and regions and apportion overall growth or decline. At the local level, space is represented as a grid of 4 ha to 1 km2 cells. There are spatial models of land use change, crop choice and physical suitability for agricultural crop types. These models are impacted by climate change and macro-economics and in turn impact the economic developments in the agricultural sector through changes in yield.
In the LUMOCAP project, RIKS has introduced the concept of a dual user interface, which has since become a standard part of Geonamica. One part of the user interface is designed for use by policy makers and policy analysts. It is structured to guide users in the steps of an impact assessment study. Contents of this part are limited to policy relevant drivers and indicators. The other part of the user interface is designed for use by modellers. It is structured to reveal the interactions between the incorporated models. Data and parameters of each model are easily accessible and organised to support model calibration and validation.
In a subsequent project, JRC-IES has funded further development of the LUMOCAP PSS and applied the system to countries that are not part of EU-27. RIKS has used the LUMOCAP PSS in the Green Infrastructure project and currently uses it in a study on soil organic matter. Both studies are commissioned by EC DG Environment.
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